Study links gentrification to reduced crime, but its downsides can’t be ignored

The gentrification of Buffalo neighborhoods between 2011 and 2019 was associated with a decline in property crime, independent of an overall decline in similar crimes citywide during those same years, according to a study from the University at Buffalo.

The findings published in the journal Plus One It could help planners and policymakers address issues such as neighbourhood improvement and crime. However, the study’s authors caution that gentrification is often accompanied by multiple effects and that the broad impact of the process requires carefully measured thought before any direct action is taken.

“If managed well, gentrification could be part of a strategy to make neighborhoods safer,” said Zhe Zhang, a graduate student in sociology at UB’s College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the study. “However, it should be noted that gentrification is a complex issue and the offsetting effects of crime reduction must be considered alongside potentially negative outcomes, such as the displacement of long-term residents.”

Since the 1990s, gentrification, which involves the immigration of a new middle-class population following a period of economic decline, has changed many urban landscapes in the US.

But most of the research on gentrification has been done in big cities like New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. Because lessons learned in those big cities don’t necessarily apply to smaller towns, Zhang and study co-author Dr. Ashley Barr, an assistant professor of sociology at UB, are expanding on that earlier work by focusing on Buffalo, a mid-sized city.

Buffalo, a typical Rust Belt city, prospered in the early 20th century but then experienced high unemployment and population loss in the 1980s, followed by a surge in development beginning in 2010, driven by state-funded projects and private investment. In addition to these changes in its characteristics, Buffalo has, over the past 20 years, become a destination for refugees and migrants.

“By studying neighborhoods in cities like Buffalo, we can observe gentrification in a place that has continued to experience economic hardship while also experiencing the hallmarks of gentrification,” Zhang says. “Buffalo’s unique experience with gentrification, despite its ongoing economic struggles, provides insights that can be applied to other older industrial cities looking to revitalize.”

The current study, which relied on census and Buffalo Police Department data, also distinguishes itself from previous work by not considering gentrification as a discrete process. Previous studies have focused on differences between gentrified and nongentrified areas, but Zhang and Barr also examine changes in crime rates within neighborhoods as they become gentrified.

They studied 79 different census tracts (areas containing between 1,200 and 8,000 people) in the years before and after gentrification.

“This approach helps clarify whether changes in crime rate are due to gentrification itself or other factors,” Zhang says.

Neighborhoods that eventually gentrify are different in some ways from neighborhoods that are vulnerable but not gentrifying, Barr said.

“While both are at a disadvantage, the latter are more so. It is important to take these pre-existing differences into account if we are to say that gentrification matters for crime. By looking at two differences (those between gentrified and never-gentrified areas, and changes over time within the same area), our multi-faceted approach achieves this,” says Barr.

The results were the same across the study’s multiple approaches: gentrification was linked to a reduction in crime.

“While this study does not directly address policy changes and their effects, plausible ways forward could include affordable housing programs, community engagement efforts, and economic support for long-term residents to ensure that the benefits of gentrification, such as reduced crime, do not come at the expense of the most vulnerable populations,” Zhang says.

This study is a first step toward understanding the effects of gentrification on crime in mid-sized cities, but more work is needed.

“We encourage qualitative research (stories from people in these areas) as well as quantitative research like ours, to better understand the underlying reasons behind the link between gentrification and crime and other resulting effects of the process, both positive and negative,” says Zhang.