Dillon Gabriel fights the preseason curse

Each week of this college football season, BetFTW will be breaking down the 2023 Heisman Trophy race and analyzing the contenders. Check back every Tuesday to see how the best college football players in the country compete for position with oddsmakers and bettors. All odds via BetMGM.

The Heisman Trophy race might have officially begun in Week 0, but Florida State flopped completely against Georgia Tech in Dublin and SMU looked completely clueless against Nevada.

So here we are. Week 1. A full schedule of games and several contenders that… ought put up massive numbers on Saturday (unless, of course, they play on Thursday, Friday or Sunday because the NFL graciously gave college fans a weekend to themselves).

You know how it goes. We’re looking at the top 10 contenders based on the odds, and the odds fluctuate for a number of reasons. It could be that a player sees a big rise because he performed well, or because a group of bettors invested a lot of money in him. We’re not here to litigate over who should have the best odds of winning. We’re just looking at what the numbers say.

Let’s get down to business.

10. Drew Allar, Penn State quarterback; Brady Cook, Missouri quarterback; Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma quarterback (+3500)

Last week’s odds (opening odds):

• Allar drew: +3500 (+5000)
• Brady Chef: +3500 (+2000)
• Jackson Arnold: +3500 (+2500)

Drew Allar has a new offensive coordinator in Andy Kotelnicki, who previously turned Kansas’ Jalon Daniels into a Heisman contender in his own right and developed a system that was able to succeed with Jason Bean and Cole Ballard when the Jayhawks’ starter was injured. If Penn State starts putting up points, Allar’s candidacy gets interesting quickly. First, the No. 8-ranked Nittany Lions have to get past West Virginia this weekend.

Mizzou’s Cook and Oklahoma’s Arnold will have much easier starts against Murray State and Temple, respectively, though in Arnold’s case, following Dillon Gabriel as the Sooners’ QB1 isn’t exactly the most enviable position.

9. Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels (+3000)

Last week’s odds (opening odds):

• Shedeur Sanders: +3000 (+2500)
• Jalon Daniels: +3000 (+4000)

Speaking of Daniels, all signs point to Lawrence being the Jayhawks’ star and healthy and ready to lead a Big 12 contender. If so, he’s a legitimate Heisman candidate as a dual-threat quarterback — that is, if coach Lance Leipold is okay with him keeping the ball given his history of back injuries. There’s no Plan B for Kansas, either. If it’s not Daniels under center, it’s either Ballard, who was last year’s No. 3 quarterback, or rookie Isaiah Marshall.

As for Sanders, it’s time to put up or shut up. He certainly has the talent to win this award, but no one gets into the Heisman conversation with fewer than eight wins, which is double what Colorado had last year.

8. Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman; Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson (+2500)

Last week’s odds (opening odds):

• Conner Weigman: +2500 (+2000)
• Avery Johnson: +2500 (+5000)

Will Howard’s transfer to Ohio State has solved a lot of problems for Kansas State, which believes it has a generational talent in Avery Johnson. The Wichita native posted a 91.3 QBR with nearly 800 yards of total offense and 12 total touchdowns last season with no interceptions as Howard’s QB2.

The fact that Texas A&M is replacing Jimbo Fisher with Mike Elko should help Weigman, after how he helped Riley Leonard’s rise at Duke last year. That’s not to mention the fact that the Aggies have arguably the softest schedule of all SEC contenders.

7. Riley Leonard, Notre Dame quarterback; Garrett Nussmeier, LSU quarterback (+2000)

Last week’s odds (opening odds):

• Riley Leonard: +2000 (+2000)
• Garrett Nussmeier: +2000 (+1800)

Leonard also left Duke and joined Marcus Freeman’s staff at Notre Dame as the heir apparent to Sam Hartman’s offense. The Irish will have to be perfect to make the College Football Playoff as an independent without an automatic bid available, which will tie directly into Leonard’s Heisman campaign.

Meanwhile, Nussmeier has an even tougher task in replacing reigning Heisman winner Jayden Daniels at LSU. The last time a school produced back-to-back Heisman-winning quarterbacks was Kyler Murray (2018) and Baker Mayfield (2017) with Oklahoma.

6. Tennessee Quarterback Nico Iamaleava (+1500)

Last week’s odds (opening odds):

No Tennessee player has ever won the Heisman. Not Manning. Not Majors. Not Shuler. Iamaleava, a redshirt freshman and former five-star recruit from Long Beach, California, will look to end that streak for good after winning the Citrus Bowl MVP award last year.

5. Miami (Florida) quarterback Cam Ward; Ohio State quarterback Will Howard (+1400)

Last week’s odds (opening odds):

• Cam Neighborhood: +2000 (+2000)
• Will Howard: +1400 (+1400)

Cam Ward has traveled from coast to coast. After a breakout campaign with Washington State last season, he’s off to Miami, Florida, where the Hurricanes need him to get the program into the playoff conversation so head coach Mario Cristobal can avoid the hot seat.

Howard left Kansas State for Ohio State and now has more tools than ever thanks to players like Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. But those two backs could easily end up stealing some of his thunder when it comes to the Heisman race.

4. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss quarterback (+1200)

Last week’s odds (opening odds):

This year, Dart is being asked to do more with less at Ole Miss. After keeping his team afloat in both the SEC and playoff hunts for most of 2023, Ole Miss fell flat following a late-season loss to Alabama. With Judkins off to Ohio State, Dart’s performance has never been more crucial to Mississippi’s success.

3. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe; Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (+1000)

Last week’s odds (opening odds):

• Jalen Milroe: +1000 (+800)
• Quinn Ewers: +1000 (+800)

Milroe and Ewers were two of BetMGM’s FOUR (4!) co-favorites to open the betting market alongside Dillon Gabriel and Carson Beck, they almost look like value bets at this price now. Almost. I’d probably wait until after Texas plays Michigan in Week 2 at the earliest, and with no serious competition until Week 3 against Wisconsin, I’d hold out for Milroe as well.

2. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck (+750)

Last week’s odds (opening odds):

The starting quarterback of the AP’s preseason No. 1 team will always be considered a Heisman favorite these days. But with Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers both in the pros, Beck will have to do more than ever to prove he’s worthy of the award in a year when the race seems more up for grabs than it has in a long time.

1. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon quarterback (+600)

Last week’s odds (opening odds):

The bad news for Dillon Gabriel is that only one preseason Heisman favorite has won the award since 2009. The good news? It was Oregon’s Marcus Mariota. The best news? The Ducks will give Gabriel every opportunity to put up absurd numbers this year.