Why will UNLV enter the CFP?

One of the most popular football futures markets offers odds on teams making it to the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.

In past years, teams from the Group of Five had almost no chance of making it to the four-team field.

In fact, out of 40 CFP participants between 2014 and 2023, only one came from the G5 (Cincinnati, 2021).

But now, at least for 2024 and 2025, the highest-ranked G5 champion is guaranteed a place in the field.

As with any relatively new market, both bookmakers and the public are not quite sure how to operate. That creates value for astute bettors hoping to build a futures portfolio.

In the preseason, I picked Appalachian State, Boise State, Memphis, and Texas State to make the CFP at odds ranging from +450 to 16/1.

What I was hoping for in the first few weeks of the season was to add some long-shot bets in the 20/1 to 40/1 range. After Week 1, it’s clear that one team is significantly mispriced in the market.

UNLV won nine games last season, surpassing the eight-win threshold for the first time since Randall Cunningham suited up in red and gray in the mid-1980s.

The Rebels did it with a surprisingly good offense (34.4 points per game, ranked 22nd) led by a relatively unknown freshman from Hawaii.

Jayden Maiava went from an under-drafted three-star to a highly sought-after passer in the transfer portal.

After receiving just one other FBS scholarship offer in 2020, he was the star of the prom last winter. After committing to Georgia, he settled on USC.

The loss of its star quarterback seemingly dampened UNLV’s CFP hopes for 2024.

But coach Barry Odom and his prodigious offensive coordinator, Brennan Marion, had a plan.

They signed two dynamic FCS quarterbacks, one from Campbell and one from Holy Cross.

Neither signing made a national splash, but both Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell) and Matt Sluka (Holy Cross) fit seamlessly into Marion’s Go-Go offense.

After winning the job in fall camp, Sluka had a chance to prove that UNLV’s offense was in good hands.

Sluka, a former Walter Payton Award finalist, was impeccable on the road against a Power Four opponent on Saturday.

He connected on two touchdown passes and ran for 59 yards in a 27-7 road win over Houston.

But the reason I’m ready to bet on UNLV’s potential this season is its defensive improvements.

Last season, in important moments, the defense imploded.

In the Mountain West title game on their home field, the Rebels gave up 527 yards and 44 points to Boise State.

They brought in a handful of interesting signings this offseason. Jalen Catalon was one of the notable signings to come to Sin City and his presence was immediately felt on Saturday.

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The safety caught a pair of interceptions, returning one for a touchdown.

Tony Grimes, a former standout high school recruit at Virginia, held the other safety spot for UNLV.

Overall, the defense dominated Houston, beating Cougars starting quarterback Donovan Smith.

If you combine his QBR and PFF grades, he was the P4 worst-performing quarterback in Week 1.

The offense continues to confuse opponents and the first results of the defense are more than encouraging.

Their schedule also provides the Rebels with three big opportunities in the next six weeks with a trip to No. 22 Kansas and two home games against Syracuse and Boise State.

Now is the time to buy UNLV stock before its odds of causing the CFP to plummet.

CHOOSE:UNLV reaches the CFP (1/22, Caesars)